TALENT Filter

So I have a rival; a Pepsi to my Coke, a Burger King to my McDonalds, a Gimbles to my Macys, a Warner to my CBS. I decided to be CBS because I’ve always been intrigued Walter Yetnikoff’s infamous vendetta for no real reason against Warner Music, whose high point was definitely the political style campaign buttons emblazoned with the slogan “Fuck the Bunny.” My rivals insignia is a coffee filter so stay tuned for my equally vitriolic button.

Talent Filter, a new anonymous A&R Blog, is getting a lot of love in the Music industry Blogosphere over the past two weeks. First a mention in Coolfer and now an interview in Hypebot. First let me say that this blog is good, whoever writes it is clearly on top of everything and must have an RSS feed of every blog on their MP3 capable Treo or a Hogan’s Heroes style bug in the major label conference rooms. There is a ton of inside information, it is updated frequently, it has a real focus, and it is well written. This alone puts it ahead of 90% percent of the music blogs out there. I wouldn’t want a nemesis that was incompetent. That wouldn’t be any fun.

But, I have several problems with TALENTFilter after reading the Hypebot interview,
First:

"...This is my only real outlet to express my opinions honestly without having to sugarcoat things in fear of pissing someone off..."

Who are they really going to piss off 95% of what is on the blog is positive. Who in their right mind is going to be upset about praise for an unknown artist. The artist and team should be happy about anything they can put in a media kit, the referrer should be happy that their site or station is getting a mention as a purveyor of top talent. The only people I can think might have a problem with it is the writers friends who may feel they are being used for their inside knowledge to further the career of TALENTFilter. I have a link to my blog on the bottom of all my emails, and will proudly stand up for my opinions.

And when asked about her background (I’m not sure what is the gender of this person. It is never specified if it is a guy or girl and I’m not going to be sexist and automatically assume it is a guy) she replies:

"...worked for a pretty successful artist discovery firm for a while and witnessed first-hand the plain stupidity of a lot of the younger A&R execs at the majors, who spend more time trying to woo the latest trendy Williamsburg / Silverlake band, as opposed to searching out acts that will appeal to the mainstream..."

This bothers me for several reasons. There is no mainstream in America anymore. It is a niche world. You don’t have to look at CD sales to see that, but it can be surmised by TV ratings, book sales, just about anything that is an entertainment property. I would argue the opposite is true. It is by only appealing to the mainstream that led the major labels to their current state. I think most younger A&R execs (and I would like to know what the filter considers younger and for that matter an exec) are idealistic and trying to change that. I know I personally strived to find bands that were both musically interesting and profitable. Profitable is different then Why can’t we have both?

Also the rip on Williamsburg and Silverlake is weak. The fact was that there were bands out of those areas that did well, and more importantly were good. It stands to reason that the music business would want to continue to mine that area for talent. Was an A&R “exec” lambasted for pursuing Seattle bands in the 90’s or Laurel Canyon bands in the late 60’s early 70’s. The answer is no. This is just a potshot that uses trendy neighborhoods in much the same way the writer abhors, as a back up to mock credibility merely by their mention. If liking a band is lazy merely because of their location, then disliking them is an equally deplorable offense.

And so I have my rival, Shes west coast, I'm east coast, Biggie to her Tupac. I'm a rambler and she is succinct. And so the the war begins. Some people may say there is room for both of us and point to Macys and Gimbles, but in reality Gimbles is dead. TALENTfilter is Gimbles.

Sparky's Flaw

Sometimes you just know a band is going to be good without hearing them. At least I can, but I think it is true of most people. I would call it word of mouth, but a lot of people tell me to listen to bands that turn out to be not very good. I would say it was when certain people or when specific tastemakers recommend something, but that is not it either. Music is a personal thing, and many people rave about bands that have no real sales potential, but every once in a while you hear about a band and the manner they are described and the people associated with them makes it clear that they have a shot at success.

Sparky’s Flaw was the latest band I needed to see, and I was not disappointed. I’m two weeks late on my review, but I needed some time to think about the real possibility of this band. They were playing the BMI new music showcase, a monthly event at Arlene’s where BMI showcases a particular artist that they believe in. June at BMI had been raving about them, and that is one mark in their favor – as their performing rights organization is behind them. Their management is Redlight (Dave Matthews and Update: not Govt Mule). They have savvy, connected, forward, thinking management - so that is the second mark in their favor. I could go on about how their lawyer is powerful, or their booking agent is diligent, and so on, but a lot of bands have similar credentials and a dedicated team.

The difference is the way these people talk about the band, you can hear it in their voice. It is not a regurgitated platitude of greatness backed by hopes that it will catch on, but rather true belief that this band should be heard by everyone. This is because Sparky’s Flaw writes good songs; songs with melody, and pace, and lyrics that are not too dumb, nor too obscure.

You can listen here:

Sparky’s Flaw Myspace Page

The second song Words Meet Heartbeats is a hit. It starts off with an uplifting pounding keyboard riff, then moves into evocative lyrics that somehow create images in my mind without using descriptive words and are delivered by a young man with a great voice.

When I left their showcase I had this song in my head on the walk home. The next day it popped into my head at the grocery store (Italian deli) and it did not go away. For the next week this song found its way into my head and I was not complaining. I had it playing while writing this post, so I’m sure I can expect more of the same for the remainder of the week.

I predict that this song will be heard all over the radio in 6 months to a year depending on how long it takes to decide on a label and record a full length album and decide on a marketing plan so the actual timing I’m not sure of, but this is a hit. It’s the perfect replacement for when the Fray’s second album inevitably bombs and the world is starving for piano based rock.

The flip side is that the band can also play free form. I mean really jam. Their Charlottesville roots shine through and the college guys in back of me kept yelling as they let their instruments fly. The inevitable comparison will be the next Dave Matthews Band, as they hail from the same hometown and have the same management, and a horn section, but that seems lazy. It is like when sportscasters compare a new player on the team to a past superstar because of their backgrounds rather than the similarity between their games. They can play though.

There was a ton of A&R and assorted industry folk at the show and the band played well, which should cement their pursuit. Anyone who wasn’t paying attention to this band should. If they get the right label to add to their already stellar team, they will be successful. That is not wishful thinking. That is something I just know.

Cartel

Originally cartels were a group of people devoted to a common end usually delivering products that we can’t be without oil, drugs etc. The band, Cartel claims to be able to create music we can’t live without. Note, I don’t know if they have made that specific claim, but I believe it is implied in their name.

If you haven’t heard by now, Cartel in conjunction with MTV and DR Pepper ( I’m not sure which has less to do with music) is entering a bubble under the Brooklyn Bridge and sealing themselves off from the rest of the world to compose an album. You can read about it here: USA TODAY Cartel Bursts Marketing Bubble

Part of me thinks this is a great idea, and part doesn’t. Here are the reasons why it is a good idea. First its exposure on MTV, which despite the fact it doesn’t play music videos anymore still has the potential to create stars, at least for a little while. The Ashley Simpson show is a prime example. Second it put some music on MTV, that is always a good thing. Someone needs to make MTV change its name now that it no longer shows music. Would CNN still be allowed to call itself the central news network if all it showed was reality TV.

The reasons it is a bad idea are pretty simple. David Blaine. If recent history has taught us anything it is that people are made fun of for sitting in a bubble. It is just such an easy target. It is the proverbial glass house, and Cartel can expect stones to be thrown. Stones are actually something Cartel should wish for since the much more likely projectiles involve bodily fluid. Secondly watching people record and write music is pretty boring. MTV can still make a career, but it takes a lead up and getting to know the personalities involved, Good Charlotte is one example. With the live approach that this act is taking it does not allow creative editing focused on conflict and drama. If viewers aren’t attached to the characters (the band) then no one is going to care, and when they emerge from the bubble to play their new album. It won’t matter. Lastly, this all hinges on them writing a great album. The last time I checked inspiration can’t be forced. If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet that the album is going to end up being pretty mediocre as they rush to finish it in time for the deadline. I give the band props for betting on themselves, but I hope they have a really good album all set to go, and are just fine tuning it in the bubble, if not then they are really taking a risk here.

Now that my thoughts on the stunt are off my chest, I can get to the real reason I wanted to write about Cartel. This Quote from Lead singer Will Pugh’s open rant to Bob Lefsetz. “We don’t listen to our A&R he just got fired anyway”

This quote made me really angry. First off Cartel’s A&R is Peter Malkin, who was a very successful manager before taking the Epic job and someone who is very knowledgeable about music and the music industry. From what I heard he was willing to stay on and help the launch of Cartel’s record despite being laid off (which is a big difference from fired). And for this, the band just calls him out completely unnecessarily. He later recants and apologizes “for throwing his A&R under the bus,” “And says that he is involved in the creative process” but the damage was already done.

This begs a larger question, what is the relationship between A&R execs and the bands they sign?

I had one prominent music attorney tell me several years ago, when I told him that my dream was to be in A&R, that I should do management instead. He said that bands laugh at their A&R whenever he leaves the room, usually to pick up a tab. This is mainly because at the end of the day the A&R is beholden to the record company. They sign his or her checks. Artists traditionally don’t like record companies. It is always been an uneasy partnership.

This needs to change. Everyone is talking about record companies being involved in more and alternate revenue streams, and becoming more of a management company, even Warner is apparently looking to buy a management company. If there isn’t a mutual respect between the artist and the label though, then this strategy will never succeed. Artist need to think of their labels as partners in their success, and conversely labels need to truly develop their relationship with artist beyond a monetary one.

This is the first step down the road to recovery for the music industry.

Simmons Sales Bump

I am so smart, I am so smart, S-M-R-T, I am so smart. On Monday I predicted that thanks to the a mention in a Bill Simmons chat on ESPN.com, That the Silversun Pick Ups would experience a sales bump or at least a slow down of their drop off.

The band had a sales decrease of 28% the previous week and after the Simmons mention their sales went up 7%. The numbers are right here

This week - 5,832 +7
Last week- 5,426 -28
Two weeks ago- 7,498

Now I can’t be sure that this is the only reason that sales could have gone up, after a slide over 1/4 of their previous week, but I predicted it and I’m going to take credit for it, or I guess More accurately give credit to him. I'm naming it the Simmons Sales Bump I hope this doesn't start a trend where label's new media departments are sending sports writers albums in hope for a mention in a column. This is kind of a happy accident, and should not be part of any bands marketing plan.

It does bring up an interesting point though as radio continues to wane in influence, what will be the new indicators of potential success. Whoever can quantify and recognize these will have a leg up on the competition if finding new bands.

In other Soundscan news, Avril Lavigne’s 286,358 was the first week since April 1 when Tim McGraw debuted with 325,000. People were calling it the savior of the industry, but overall sales volume was only up 1% and after Avril and Nine Inch Nails there were no albums above 100,000. All signs point to another total sub 100k week for all debut albums as Joe (who was my best friend in high school’s little sisters favorite artist) is set to reach 90k. I’m curious as to what Avril will be able to put up after her relatively blockbuster initial week. If it is over 50% the album is in trouble. I hope it isn’t though as the album is filled with pop gems and I’ve always had a soft spot for Ms. Lavigne, since learning she received a cowriting credit for her #2 hit song Complicated, by changing the original lyric of "Take off all your stupid clothes" to "Take off all your preppy clothes." That one word made the song resonate with me, and I applaud her for that.

Pick Up Games

So I’m a sports guy. Two of the 7 links on this blog are sports blogs from friends of mine. I’ve found that a lot of people in the music industry are not sports guys (or girls). Either you were in the band or on the football team. The two are kind of mutually exclusive, and there is still some latent resentment over high school slights that permeate so many people in the industry.

But as a sports guy I read “The Sports Guy” the espn columnist Bill Simmons who loves the fights on MTV’s the real world as much as the fights in Madison square garden. (I was also considering the real world as much as real Madrid, but lets be honest no one likes soccer) So low and behold when reading his column this weekend which turned out to be a chat there is a discussion about indie rock.

Bill Simmons Chat

PattyO (Austin): Maximo Park or The Fratellis?

SportsNation Bill Simmons: like the Fratellis - interesting album. some really good music out right now, 30-40 songs I love in the past 3-4 months.

Ben ((Charlotte)): Bill, you seem to be in to indie rock, mind if i throw a couple bands out there? Broken Social Scene, Pinback, or Minus the Bear?

SportsNation Bill Simmons: Good choices... the new Modest Mouse album is really good (the return of Johnny Marr!), look out for Voxtrot as well.


Jason (ATL): alright simmons, whats your top 5 bands that get no love from mainstream media??

SportsNation Bill Simmons: Silversun Pickups, definitely... that album was unbelievable. "Lazy Eye" isn't even one of the best 3 songs on it, and that's the only one they've been playing so far.


SportsNation Bill Simmons: Mute Math is underrated. The Hold Steady. Clap Your Hands Say Yeah. Voxtrot. Blue October. The Cloud Room.

It then goes on with a discussion of Buffalo Tom who apparently has a new album out. You can read the rest at ESPN.

Now this is interesting for a number of reasons. Simmons has a large and rabid fanbase. Think of him as a poor mans Oprah, if Oprah’s core audience was between 18-40 and male. I think this mention will do more for the Silversun Pickups then a cover story in billboard. Your average person doesn’t read Billboard. Your average person does read Bill Simmons though.

Their current sales numbers look like this
This Week 5,426
Last week 7,498
Overall 126,200

I think they will have a jump in sales sometime in the next two weeks, due to this mention on ESPN, and the increased traffic from the Avril Lavigne and Nine Inch Nails new releases. Either that or they will have less than a 24% drop off which in some ways is a win anyway.

Stay Tuned to see if I’m right, or just throwing out random ideas. I can’t be the only one who is intrigued about the potential of the Simmons Sales Bump.

Most Popular Criminals

I was a little torn on what to pick for my first demo review. In reality A&R is sifting through tons of mediocre CDs and MySpace pages hoping to hear one good song. I'd like to just put up that one good song each week, but that isn't an accurate representation of the process. I'm instead planning on doing analysis on bands that have a little bit of traction and giving my honest guess on their success ceiling.

Yesterday on the 6 train my conversation was stopped by the familiar "excuse me ladies and gentleman." I was expecting a man asking for loose change, a kid selling candy for his basketball team, or even a dance troupe. I instead got a man dressed with a light up belt buckle selling CDs for a dollar for his non gangster hip hop group Most Popular Criminals. I find it odd that a so called conscious hip hop group would still use criminals in their moniker. I don't think its supposed to be ironic.
What separates this group from the legions of other hip hop street musicians seems to be business sense. I have been accosted by so many kids saying "do you like hip hop? Buy my CD for 5 or 10 Dollars that you never heard" that it gets old. This man was only selling his for a 1 though and for that I'll take a chance. He had on his groups T Shirt with their website, his belt buckle had their website even his shoes had their website. This man was a walking billboard. Unfortunately when I tried to visit the website it had an error maybe someone else will have luck with www.mostpop.org. With the amount of times I have received a blank CD without any indication of who the group was or contact info, I was impressed that this man was one step away from tattooing his website on his forehead. They also have their own TV show in BronxNet, and a feature done on them for ABC news. This shows not only a real dedication to their career but also the ability to execute their vision.

The other thing that is working for the Most Popular Criminals is timing. Don Imus's recent remarks about the Rutgers Womens Basketball Team have brought a lot of criticism on the current hip hop scene which NAS so eloquently put is dead. The leaders of the Hip Hop industry are all meeting at Lyor Cohens house to try and determine the next step for hip hop. Hip hop albums are not the guaranteed money makers they once were as Diddy's latest album hasn't even gone past 700,000 yet. There needs to be a positive hip hop group that is given a marketing push to show that the industry isn't just guns, ho's, drugs and money. This group already has momentum in that direction with their ABC news story.

Their only problem is their songs. Their beats are jazzy, with kind of a jurrassic 5 feel. Their rapping is fine, but not extraordinary, their hooks are not catchy, and while their songs are certainly not about jacking cats with gats for crack, there is nothing incredibly interesting about the lyrics either. Their is no positive message to back up their backstory. Their is really no message at all. I don't think a good producer could help them improve where they lack, namely compelling material, and I would pass on any major deal for them. They could be profitable on a small independent because of their story and marketing instincts. Without interesting songs though, they are going to have to really build up their fanbase and at their current tally of 1600 MySpace friends they have a long way to go. There are a lot better rappers out there with a positive message, I would pick one of them for the inevitable concsious hip hop marketing blitz.

Soundscan 4/18/07

As I previously stated I love looking at Soundscan. Its been my Wednesday ritual for the past 5 years. Today is no exception. All it takes is a quick glance to see that the sound recording industry ( at least that is the category I used on my taxes yesterday) is in trouble. There is not a single album over 100,000. More than that though the drop off is precipitous after the top ten, and artists that are getting a lot of traction are selling no albums.

Bob Lefsetz (A curmudgeonly Ski Bum who occasionally writes about the music industry) recently started a thread about Brandi Carlisle. He said she was everywhere. I personally only noticed a review of her Troubador show on Hits but even that generally means that an artist is being talked about a great deal. Brandi Carlisle sold 1196 albums this week and 934 last week. An artist who moves barely 2000 albums is somehow a story. There is already a backlash and this girl isn't selling anything. She gets her own music video at the end of Greys Anatomy and she sells 300 more albums. This is just sad.

Other chart notables are the number 1 album Now 24: A collection of singles. This is the best we have. I promise not to be negative in this blog, but soundscan day is now disappointing. No longer do I look forward to taking some time off going to Barnes and Noble and just going over the numbers. Sales are down 23% compared to last week and 32% compared to the same week last year. There is 1/3 as much volume.

What does all this mean for A&R staffs.

1) We have to redefine hit. I'd be much more interested in profit margin over number of sales. The movie business defines its stars by gross receipts, the music business by gross units. The music business will never define hits by money because then they might have to be more transparent about royalties.

2) Well i don't have a two just yet, but I will. This isn't over. I'll go over soundscan every week and as I get better at this writing thing it will become clearer.